I was recently reading an article in Realty Times about the probability of a recession by this Spring.
I tend to agree with their assessment.
There are definitely different "pockets" of positive Real Estate values, Sales and even growth which may mean if we do go into Recession...it could be spotty. Or, as we have all experienced during the Bubble phenomenon, perception will affect reality.
The North East is experiencing the full effects of the rise in oil prices.
Here in New Hampshire there have already been announcements of layoffs and future downsizing. As I reluctantly shop for astronomically priced groceries I overhear the clerks complaining about drastic cuts in work hours. Oh, and we just had a notice from our Electric Utility...our rates are going up!
It is being reported that people have no savings, are maxed out on credit and are fearful of losing their jobs. Manufacturing is down, the Service Industry is growing. Unfortunately a Service Industry need customers.
These reports on the surface ...are dire.
But in Real Estate.....could this mean a bit of a Silver Lining?
Consumer Spending is a mainstay of our Economy, so in order to attract maxed out Consumers, merchants may need to borrow some tactics from the past......no money down and no interest payments on various Consumer goods, higher interest on savings and lower interest on borrowed money. A Market that is now attractive to Buyers...may become a goldmine. Banks who are tightening the purse strings may again be looking to lend.
Could it be???? Could Recession bring us to that ever elusive even playing field! 
Or is that too simple an Economic projection?
Concord New Hampshire Realtor Area Information
NH's Four Seasons
Joan Mirantz - Joni is a Realtor® with Homequest Real Estate, a locally owned, Customer Service oriented Firm.
Joan Publishes a monthly Newsletter "Food For Thought" under the pen name Realtor Sherpa.
(Joan also answers to Miz Maven and Miss Joni.)
Joan works in Buyer and Seller Representation with concentrations in the Merrimack Valley Area and towns surrounding Concord NH - the Capital City.
"I love what I do, and it shows in how I do it"
Having crossed over to the "other side of Middle Age" herself....Joan is an ongoing source of information about local programs, facilities and issues specific to her peers!
Livin' the Life...and Ridin' the Wave
Joan,
After a very slow October and November, the months of December and now January are much more active for me. I think we'll do well whether or not we find we're in a recession.
Mike in Tucson
Hi Mike...aren't you also in one of the least affected areas of the country?
I thought the trying of RE to recession was an interesting premise...and made some sense!
Joan, I like your theory and could see it happening if things continue the way they are down there.
What saddens me is the empty houses that have been foreclosed on, and meanwhile thousands upon thousands of families with no place to live. What kind of sense does it make? Something's going to start happening soon to get people back together with the houses....a house deteriorates if it sits empty too long.
Jo
Hi Jo...I'm no economist..but thought it made sense!
Believe me I have high hopes for the next election,which is probably very naive. I just wish it weren't a year away...so much time for more to go wrong!
Hmm, sounds reasonable to me but then again economics are not my expertise. The thing is we can't just sit and wait, we have to continue to work and prepare.
I'm on an efficient train line into New York City from NJ, and our market is still seeing deals go along. That being said, not all of my staged homes this Fall sold - two went to rental, and I'm told that they got more money thanks to the staging. This I doubt, but find comforting, nonetheless.
Judging by the phone calls already, I'm expecting a robust Spring market. Prices need to adjust lower, but I think when they do, we'll all be fine. That level playing field you mention will prevail.
God willing!
Miss Joanie (I spell it Joanie) --
That's a good blog subject, well-written, and I personally think right on target. Oil prices are what are going to do the real harm. It isn't the slow real estate market or the sub-prime rate fiasco.
Someday I'm going to do a blog on how the economics of the global economy were supposed to work, and what messed things up. It's quite interesting and easily defendable.
My best,
Billycherry
Hi Joan.I sure hope you're right! We would all welcome it!
Sorry I missed yesterday...I've been sick and have turned into a vegetable!
Laurie...if you believe hard enough, anything can happen!