The headlines were there. Bold and in your face!
On October 18th our local paper, The Concord Monitor, reprinted an article by David Brooks of the Nashua Telegraph.
The article was yet another Housing "State of the State" based on statistics and opinions of NHAR
N.H. home sales increase while prices keep sliding
Median price falls 8 percent in year (By David Brooks - The Telegraph)
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The article went on to point out that NH home sales were up 3% over the same quarter in 2008. A spokesman for NHAR was quoted as saying he believed that the increase in sales plus the decrease in inventory will eventually lead to an increase in prices.
Now....I may be naive when it comes to the nuances of Marketing. And I, as much as most, want to believe that our Market is improving. But where is the fine line between Hype and Help? How much is wishful thinking? How much is "if we build it they will come"?
These types of Headlines are not only local..... you can hear about how "it's getting better" on any given day in any News Publication or TV Network. Bits and pieces of positive news blown completely out of proportion ....3 little pixels presented as the whole picture.
I think we will all agree that sales have seen improvement these past few months....it's amazing what the promise of $8,000 will do! And yes, I do believe the Inventory has dropped... Bargain Sale foreclosures, some loosening of Lender hurdles and $8,000 will help with that.
But that isn't the whole picture! The articles fails to mention the new Foreclosures anticipated because of ARM's resetting this year, the new Foreclosures anticipated as unemployment starts to effect Mortgage payments. They also ignore the plight of people on fixed incomes who can no longer wait it out....and are forced to sell.
None of these "News" sources point out that it has taken years for us to borrow, spend, speculate and over-extend ourselves into this position. And we are not going to wake up some sunny morning and find it all has passed. That's just not going to happen
I for one want them to tell it like it is....I'm a big girl, I can take it.
I want to be able to tell my Sellers that they need to be making decisions on what is now....not on what someone is telling them "is coming"
My Buyers on the other hand, are beyond being sucked in anticipating a "bargain". They have developed a lase' fare attitude and are taking their time. At this point I'm thinking the only thing that could make them take note would be a rise in Interest Rates!
Ordinarily I am not a pessimistic person, and when it comes to my business....I appreciate an occasional infusion of Hope. But lately....in my humble opinion....it's really starting to look like Hype 
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Joan Mirantz - Joni is a Realtor® with Keeler Family Realtors, a locally owned, Customer Service oriented Firm.
Joan Publishes a monthly Newsletter "Food For Thought" under the pen name Realtor Sherpa.
(Joan also answers to Miz Maven and Miss Joni.)
Joan works in Buyer and Seller Representation with concentrations in the Merrimack Valley Area and towns surrounding Concord NH - the Capital City.
"I love what I do, and it shows in how I do it"
Joni~ I'm with you. I think each buyer has to look at their situation.. economic and job... It is important to paint a true picture of the market!
Joan
The truth will always be a great indicator in any market; new Hampshire is lucky to have you?
Joni,
Let 'em sell papers. Not too many people believe the hype anyway, and life is too short... Come on by and see what I found this morning.
Mike in Tucson
Hi Joni... I am with you on this. Just give me a solid shot of reality... I will analyze and spin it for myself!
Hi Joan,
A well written piece that gets to the heart of all this. We have noticed similar things here , sales increasing, but the price drop has nearly abated at least in most areas. The extension and enhancement of the Federal tax credit may get us through this next year. The foreclosures promised have thus far been only a trickle. I think this is our current market and we all have to adjust to it. It will be 5 to 8 years before we really prices begin the trends upward. Maybe by that time, we have the banks fully engaged in the business again of making loans.
Rates are going up!!!!!
just kidding.
our business is a snapshot of today. that's all we know for certain.
the speculation and predictions may be entertaining, especially when they support our point of view, but that's all.
Joan- after nearly two years of depression in the housing market an increase in sales based on the defaulting home owner sales, (foreclosures, short sales etc) is worth reporting. Remember 2007? Nothing sold. It was like someone turned off he light switch. It takes time to build momentum in any market struggling to recover.
If the number of sales has increased as a result of the prices coming down ( the inverse relationship) it is impossible to speculate with certainty exactly how many more homeowners will succumb to short sales or foreclosures because of life changing conditions- sure there will be some but precisely how many no one can say with certainty.
A little good news is not a bad thing. In fact in my humble opinion it is long overdue. The market cannot recovery if the media continually implies it is a bad decision to purchase a home now.
Alison...I'm all for encouragement. But I draw the line at manipulation and there's a lot of that going on.
That's true Jay. They are entertaining. I just get tired of having to un-do the damage.
William...now that's telling it like it is! There is soooo much to fix your time line is probably right on!
Steve...can I quote you on that?
Mike....that bird is beautiful....soo blue! I don't think we have that species here.
Hi Tom...you and Lars can come visit anytime!!
Hi Joan...we have a lot to catch up on!